ComRes Battlebus: June Marginal Seats Poll

ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,008 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 25th June 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. 

 

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Date Published
28 Jun 2014

Further Description

 New ComRes Poll: Marginals voters say Cameron ‘out of touch’ as Farage tops poll for being ‘weird’

In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, Labour holds a five point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats.

Labour currently has 36% of the vote in these battleground constituencies with the Conservatives on 31%, the Liberal Democrats on 7% and UKIP on 17% (up from 3% in 2010). The poll shows little movement in the last month in these key seats.  

Con      31% (-2)

Lab       36% (+1)

LD        7% (-1)

UKIP     17% (nc)

Other    8% (+1)

Figures in brackets show changes since May.

The poll brings mixed news for Prime Minister David Cameron on a personal note, as he is the most likely leader to be seen as out of touch (50%), but also as statesmanlike (37%), competent (33%) and intelligent (42%). 

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is the leader most likely to be seen as weird with 40% of people in these marginal seats describing the UKIP leader as such, while a third (32%) say the same of Ed Miliband.

None of the leaders has managed to convince the public in the marginal constituencies that they “come across as someone like me”, with Nigel Farage chosen by 14% as representing people like them, Ed Miliband by 13%, David Cameron by 12% and Nick Clegg by 8%.

Q. Please select which of the following words or phrases apply to each Party leader.

 

 

David Cameron

Ed Miliband

Nick Clegg

Nigel Farage

Out of touch with ordinary people

50%

35%

38%

17%

Intelligent

42%

29%

25%

18%

Weird

7%

32%

13%

40%

Competent

33%

19%

10%

11%

Can get things done

29%

17%

7%

13%

Has the right policies for Britain\\\'s future

24%

21%

7%

15%

Is the most statesmanlike

37%

10%

8%

7%

Trustworthy

21%

17%

7%

9%

Comes across as someone like me

12%

13%

8%

14%

 Base: 1,008 British adults in marginal constituencies

Two thirds (65%) of the public in the marginal seats say they will decide who to vote for based on which Party has the best policies on the issues important to them, one in seven (14%) say the Party with the leader who will make the best Prime Minister will get their vote.

Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, said of the findings: “Despite talk of the polls narrowing in favour of the Conservatives, this poll shows that in the seats which really matter Labour remain stubbornly in front.  To have any prospect of staying in power David Cameron has to persuade voters that he and his Party understand the needs and concerns of ordinary people.  He certainly cannot afford weeks like the one he has just had.” 

Methodology Note:

ComRes interviewed a representative sample of 1,008 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 25th June 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

 

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