A new ComRes / Daily Mail poll shows the UK staying in the European Union remains more popular than pulling out of the EU. Half (51%) of Britons say they would vote to stay in the EU if there were a referendum tomorrow, while a third 33% would vote to leave.
However, there does appear to be a slight difference in the result when using the referendum question wording proposed by the Conservative government last week. When asked, “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”, 58% say Yes, compared to 31% who say No.
The poll also found that the government’s proposed law on trade unions requiring a 50% turnout for strike ballots to be legal receives majority public support (62%), as does cutting the total households can receive in benefits (55%) while replacing the Human Rights Act with a British Bill of Rights and English votes for English laws (EVEL) are supported by more Britons than oppose them, but neither enjoy the backing of more than half of the public.
Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling at ComRes said: “We now know the government’s proposed wording for the referendum itself, and this first poll since the General Election shows the “Yes” (or “Stay In”) side with a significant lead. As ever, an election is won by those who turn up. The “Yes” side is strongest among younger generations who are least likely to vote, but also among the more affluent who tend to turnout. These key groups will be the ones to watch as the referendum draws closer. Building up support among those who are unlikely to vote, as Labour did, will ultimately end in failure. Targeting the regular voters is the key to success in this referendum.”
|Qa: “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether or not the UK should stay in or leave the European Union (EU), how would you vote?”||Qb: “If a referendum were held tomorrow, how would you vote on the following question: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”|
|Stay in||51% (-5)||Yes||58%|
|Don’t know||16% (+1)||Don’t know||11%|
Base: Split sample, Qa = 500 adults, Qb = 500 adults. Figures in brackets show change since 3-5 May 2015
- Applying the ComRes Voter Turnout Model appears to have little impact at this early stage on the referendum question. The “No” figure remains at 31% while “Yes” is on 59%. This will be an important figure to watch as the referendum draws clearer as it will show any potential movement among the groups that are known are more likely to turnout and vote.
- Young Britons are significantly more likely than their older counterparts to vote “Yes” in a referendum: 73% of 18-34 year olds compared to 38% of those aged 65+. Around half (47%) of older Britons (65+) would vote “No”.
- There is also a clear difference by social grade, with support for “Yes” being significantly higher among AB social grades than those in lower, working class groups (DE): 73% and 48% respectively.
- Labour voters are more pro-“Yes” than Conservatives (73% to 58%), although even among Conservative voters only a third (33%) would vote “No” to remaining in the EU.
Q: Do you support or oppose each of the following policies?
|Replacing the Human Rights Act with a proposed British Bill of Rights||46%||36%||18%|
|Creating a law requiring trade union strikes to be legal only if at least 50% of members take part in the ballot||62%||29%||10%|
|Preventing Scottish MPs in the UK Parliament in Westminster to vote on issues that do not impact on Scotland||50%||41%||9%|
|Cutting the total amount one household can claim in benefits from £26,000 to £23,000||55%||35%||10%|
Base: All GB adults (n=1,000).
- Three in five (62%) Britons support creating a law requiring trade union strikes to achieve at least 50% turnout on a strike ballot for it to be legal. While three quarters (74%) of Conservatives support the policy, so do more than half (55%) of Labour voters.
- 53% of Labour voters oppose replacing the HRA with a British Bill of Rights while only a third (34%) support doing so. Six in ten (60%) Conservatives back the policy.
- The plan for EVEL also highlights differences between the Conservatives and Labour voters with two thirds of Conservative voters (65%) in favour compared to 38% of Labour voters.