The first ComRes / Daily Mail telephone poll since the General Election shows the Conservatives with a 12 point lead over Labour.
This is the first poll using the new ComRes Voter Turnout Model. The model simulates the likelihood of each respondent to vote based on their age and social grade. This has been calculated using actual General Election turnout data on a constituency level and matches it with the known age and social grade profiles of the constituencies taken from the Census. This will provide a more accurate reflection of the actual voting public. (For more detail on the new ComRes Voter Turnout Model see here.)
Con 41% (+3)
Lab 29% (-2)
Lib Dem 8% (NC)
UKIP 10% (-3)
SNP 5% (NC)
Green 5% (+1)
Others 3% (+1)
Changes in brackets from the General Election result.
Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling, ComRes said: “The polls at May’s General Election tended to overestimate Labour’s support. At ComRes our review has uncovered that much of Labour’s backing was coming from groups that were less likely to actually turnout and vote than others. We’ve used this, along with official turnout data to build a Voter Turnout Model which more accurately predicts who is more and less likely to vote, to ensure we’re getting the most accurate reflection of the voting public. The new Labour leader would do well to learn similar lessons, and concentrate on targeting those groups who are actually going to vote and where Labour has struggled in the past.”