Final Prediction Poll for ITV News / The Independent

The ComRes Prediction Poll for ITV News/The Independent shows the UK election result on a knife-edge:

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Date Published
04 May 2010

Further Description

The ComRes Prediction Poll for ITV News/The Independent shows the UK election result on a knife-edge:

Conservatives          37% (-)

Labour                        28% (-1)

Liberal Democrats    28% (+2)

Other                          7% (-1)

The ComRes Prediction Poll gives the Conservatives 299 seats - 27 short of an overall majority – Labour 233 seats and Liberal Democrats 87.

 

Final projected turnout is 70%.  The number of British adults now undecided but ‘absolutely certain’ to vote remains at 2.1m although this is the lowest registered by ComRes at any time in the campaign.

 

The poll finds the Conservative Party ending the campaign ahead among men by 39% to 35%, while the Liberal Democrats and Labour are both ahead among women: the Liberal Democrats by 29% to 26% and Labour by 32% to 24%.  According to the poll, Labour have held on to just 63% of their 2005 vote, compared with 80% of the Liberal Democrat 2005 vote remaining loyal (suggesting no or little ‘Iraq unwind’) and 87% of 2005 Conservative voters remaining with that party.

 

The poll also asked a battery of questions to elicit voter preferences in the event of a hung parliament:

Q1.  Who would you most like to see becoming PM on Friday?

David Cameron              33%

Gordon Brown                23%

Nick Clegg                    18%

Other                            6%

DK                                17%

Conservative voters are the most enthusiastic about their party’s leader, with 86% saying they’d most like to see David Cameron becoming PM on Friday.  Just under three-quarters of Labour voters (73%) say the same of their leader

Only 61% of Lib Dem voters would most like to see Nick Clegg becoming PM on Friday; of the remainder 12% say Gordon Brown and just 9% say David Cameron, while 18% say don’t know, other or refuse to say

Q2.  And who do you think is most likely to be PM on Friday?

David Cameron              56%

Gordon Brown                19%

Nick Clegg                    4%

Other                            2%

DK                                18%

 
Q3.  The UK electoral system means that the party with the most votes may not get the most seats in parliament.  Do you agree or disagree with these statements?

The leader of the party with the most VOTES in the general election should get to be Prime Minister

Agree                81%

Disagree           15%

 

The leader of the party with the most SEATS in the general election should get to be Prime Minister

Agree                51%

Disagree           41%

 

In the event of a hung parliament, I would prefer David Cameron to be Prime Minister

Agree                48%

Disagree           45%

 

In the event of a hung parliament, I would prefer Gordon Brown to be Prime Minister

Agree                33%

Disagree           61%

 

Methodology: ComRes telephoned a random sample of 1025 GB adults on 4-5 May 2010.  Data were weighted to be representative of all adults and by past vote recall.

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