Independent on Sunday Poll

 Voting intention poll plus political attitudes conducted for the Independent on Sunday published 23 August 2009.

Date Published
22 Aug 2009

Further Description



Con      41% (-1)
Lab      24% (-)
LD        18% (-)
Other   16% (-)        UKIP 5, Green 4, Nationalists 3, BNP 3.
(Change since the most recent ComRes poll for The Independent on 28 July; numbers do not add to 100 because of rounding.)

And when voters were asked whether they agreed or disagreed that "The NHS would be safer under Labour than the Conservatives", only 39% agreed and 47% disagreed.

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes chief exec, commented: 
Ø       This is a killer for Labour – they have lost their advantage on one of the biggest electoral drivers
Ø       17% of Tory voters agree
Ø       39% of Lib Dem voters agree while 51% disagree
Ø       Among people who refuse to say how they will vote, or don’t know, 28% agree with this statement compared with 41% who disagree
Key points about Voting Intention figures:

The Martin Baxter calculator shows a CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 124.

Ø       The Tories are comfortably ahead among every age group and even among social groups C2 and DE.
Ø       At 16%, others remain high but only 1% are ‘other others’.
Ø       Only 50% of people who voted Labour in 2005 are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote now compared with 75% of 2005 Tory voters
Ø       Only 66% of 2005 Labour voters intend to vote for that party now, and only 70% of 2005 Lib Dem voters intend to vote for that party
Ø       By contrast 90% of 2005 Tory voters intend to vote for that party now
Additional questions:
All British forces should be withdrawn from Afghanistan as quickly as possible:
Agree              60% (64% in July)    
Disagree         33%  (33% in July)
Ø       As in July, more women than men agree
Ø       Also as in July, there is a direct correlation between social group and support with lower social groups most strongly agreeing.
A High Pay Commission should be set up to curb excessive pay and bonuses:
Agree              65%
Disagree          31%
Ø       Surprisingly there is little variance among different social groups
Ø       Even 63% of Tories agree compared with 66% of Labour voters and 75% of Lib Dems
The Conservatives have the right ideas about how to get Britain out of recession:
Agree               37% (Feb 35%, April 38%)
Disagree           48% (Feb 45%, April 49%)
Ø       The Tories have failed to boost their economic credibility so far during 2009 – leading to the question what happens if we now see proper economic recovery?
Ø       Again there is remarkable little variance between different social groups
Ø       Less surprising is that 73% of Tory voters agree but only 13% of Labour and 19% of Lib Dems agree
Ø       Among people who refuse to say or don’t know, 27% agree and 41% disagree – suggesting the Tory messages are not persuading people who are electorally promiscuous