Independent on Sunday Poll

May voting intention poll for the Independent on Sunday plus political attitudes, published on 16 May 2009.

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Date Published
15 May 2009

Further Description

Conservative lead at 19%, and a new record low for Labour.  

Con      40% (-5)
Lab      21% (-5)
LD        18% (-)
Others   21% (+9)
 
(Comparison with previous Independent poll published 27 April - comparative results for IoS 22 March were Con 41%, Lab 30%, LD 17%))

Ø      The Tories and Labour are being hit in equal measure by the expenses scandal
Ø      The Conservatives lead Labour among all regions and social groups – including Scotland.
Ø      88% of people who voted Conservative in 2005 will vote Conservative now.  58% of people who voted Labour in 2005 say that they will vote Labour now.  69% of people who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will now vote Lib Dem.  (18% of people who voted Labour in 2005 will now vote for a minor party).
Ø      15% of Labour voters and 11% of Lib Dem voters in 2005 are Tory voters now
Ø      Only 37% of Labour identifiers are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 45% of LDs and 64% of Conservative identifiers.
 
Additional questions:
 
I am very likely to vote for one of the minor parties, such as the Green Party or UKIP, in the European elections in June
Agree               43%
Disagree           53%
Ø      40% of Labour identifiers, 36% Tory identifiers and 43% of Liberal Democrat identifiers agree with this statement.  So - all the major parties are likely to be at risk of losing votes to minor parties in the European elections.

Most MPs are honest and have been let down by the greed of a minority
Agree             46%
Disagree        50%
Ø      People voting for the minor parties are more likely to disagree than those voting for the main three parties – suggesting a motivation for voting for a minor party.
Ø      57% of Labour voters agree and 50% of Conservative voters agree with this statement.
 
David Cameron has dealt with the issue of MPs’ expenses better than Gordon Brown
Agree               59%
Disagree           31%
Ø      Voters for all parties, apart from Labour, are more likely to agree than disagree with this statement (41/52% among Lab voters).
Ø      But - 51% of people who voted Labour in 2005 agree; 39% who disagree.
 
Alan Johnson, the Heath Secretary, would be a better prime minister than Gordon Brown
Agree               32%
Disagree           49%
Ø      50% of 18-24 year olds think that Alan Johnson would be a better prime minister than Gordon Brown.
Ø      72% of Labour voters disagree that Alan Johnson would be a better prime minister than Gordon Brown, however 46% of Tory voters agree that Alan Johnson would be better than Gordon Brown.
 
 
Methodology note:
 
ComRes telephoned 1010 GB adults between 13th and 14th May 2009.  Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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