IoS + Sunday Mirror Political Poll

Voting intention and political attitudes conducted for Independent on Sunday / Sunday Mirror published 17 October 2010.

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Date Published
15 Oct 2010

Further Description

Tories come out of conference season ahead;  Cameron/Osborne have huge advantage over Miliband/Johnson going into the spending review;  voters support a 60p-in-the-pound top rate of income tax

Con       40% (+1)
Lab        34% (-2)
LD          14% (-1)
Others   12% (+2)

(comparison is with last ComRes poll for The Independent published 2 October 2010)

Commentary by Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes:

·         Just 57% of people who voted Lib Dem in May would vote Lib Dem now compared with 94% for Tories and 92% for Labour
·         The leakage from Lib Dems to Labour continues: fully 24%, one in four, of May Lib Dems would now vote Labour and a further one in ten (11%) would vote Tory
·         Despite concern about the impact of cuts on the elderly, fully 55% of those aged 65+ would vote Conservative
·         Tories are well ahead of Labour in all social groups with the exception of DE
 
Putting your allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn?
 
David Cameron and George Osborne  45%
Ed Miliband and Alan Johnson  23%
Don’t know  33%
 
The Coalition Government understands the interests of the wealthy better than the interests of ordinary people
 
Agree 46%
Disagree 33%
Don’t know 21%
·         This is bad news for the Coalition partners half of social group C2 (50%) and DE (53%) agree and only one quarter of each group disagrees
·         Also disturbing for the Coalition will be the news that one in four Tory voters (24%) agrees, as do 45% of current Lib Dems and a massive 52% of people who voted Lib Dem in May
 
It is fair that students should pay more for their university education even though their parents’ generation didn’t
 
Agree 35%
Disagree 50%
Don’t know 15%
·         Unsurprisingly there is a strong pattern by age here, with 18-24 year olds the most likely to disagree (64%)  and those aged 65+ most likely to agree (47%)
·         Half of current LD voters (48%) and 57% of May LD voters do not think it fair
·         Two thirds of Labour voters (66%) disagree that students should pay more, compared to 36% of Conservative voters who disagree; 52% of Tory voters agree
 
Welfare benefit cuts will hit hardest the poorest, elderly and most vulnerable in society
 
Agree 56%
Disagree 28%
Don’t know 15%
·         The expectations of people in lower income groups are pretty pessimistic on this measure:  67% of DEs agree with it, compared to only 52% of ABs
·         Over half of current LD voters (56%) think the welfare cuts will hit the these groups, as do 64% of people who voted LD in May
 
The top rate of income tax at 50p in the pound on earnings over £150,000 a year should be raised to 60p in the pound
 
Agree 54%
Disagree 29%
Don’t know 17%
·         There is an interesting trend by age: older people are far more likely than younger people to agree – 30% of 18-24s agree, rising to 69% of 55-64s and 68% among those aged 65+
·         AB voters are almost as supportive as DEs (57% and 60% agree respectively)
·         Half of Tory voters agree, as do 53% of LDs and 67% of Labour voters
 
The loss of hundreds of thousands of public sector jobs is a price worth paying to reduce the deficit
 
Agree 30%
Disagree 47%
Don’t know 23%
·         Men (36%) are more likely to agree than women (23%)
·         There is a strong party divergence: 55% of Tory voters agree but only 10% of Labour voters and 30% of LDs; 49% of LDs disagree – as do 58% of people who voted LD in May
 
I expect that the public spending cuts to be announced next week will be fair
 
Agree 30%
Disagree 43%
Don’t know 26%
·         DEs the gloomiest of all – 22% agree with the statement compared with 53% who do not
·         Six in ten Conservative voters (60%) expect the cuts to be fair, while just a third of Lib Dem supports (32%) and one in ten Labour supporters (10%) agree
 
ComRes interviewed 2,009 GB adults on line between 13 and 15 October. Data were weighted to be representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall.  ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

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