Conservative lead up to 10 points; Lib Dems in third.
Con 38 (+2)
Lab 28 (-1)
LD 25 (-1)
Others 9 (-)
(Change since ComRes poll for Independent/ITV News 28 April.)
Forecast seat distribution:
Con 315 11 seats short of a majority
Commentary from Andrew Hawkins, chairman, ComRes
· This is our largest Tory lead since February
· With 69% ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, turnout should reach 70% on Thursday
· The result will turn on the extent to which different age and social groups actually turn out to vote on the day – only 52% of the recently Lib Dem-loving 18-24s are certain, compared to the Tory-loyal 65+, 79% of whom are certain to vote. The 61% figures for C2s is unduly low, possibly because some Labour voters are feeling demotivated
· Support for Lib Dems appears to have slipped among most demographic groups as well as regionally. On Thursday Lib Dem support could actually be worse...in 2001 an estimated 39% of 18-24s voted and in 2005 this went down to 37%. So that 52% figure that we picked up today could well overstate likely Lib Dem support on the day, notwithstanding that the parties are almost level-pegging among this age group in today’s poll
Q1. Which one of these possible outcomes would you personally prefer to see from the forthcoming general election?
11 April 18 April 2 May
a Conservatives forming a government with an
overall majority 29% 25% 31%
b Conservatives forming a government with the
support of the Liberal Democrats in a hung parliament 20% 28% 15%
c Labour Party forming a government with the
support of the Liberal Democrats in a hung parliament 26% 28% 22%
d Labour Party forming a government with an
overall majority 25% 19% 19%
Do you agree or disagree with these statements?
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of the leaders' debates.
· 27% of Lib Dem voters, 22% of Labour voters and 15% of Tory voters have changed their minds
· 24% of 2005 Labour voters say they changed their minds because of the debates, compared with only 15% of 2005 Lib Dem voters and 10% of 2005 Tories
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of Gordon Brown calling a voter a "bigoted woman".
· The most stunning figure here is that one in five - 19% - of people in social group DE agree. People in the north and midlands are most likely to agree
· Also worrying will be that 14% of Lib Dems and 14% of undecideds/refuseds agree, as do 13% of 2005 Labour voters – suggesting the incident will indeed cost Labour some votes even if not on as dramatic a scale as initially thought
The voting system in this country needs to be changed.
Feb 2010 2 May
Agree 47% 55%
Disagree 48% 38%
· ABs and older voters are most likely to agree and, perhaps counter-intuitively, 18-24s are most likely to disagree
Regardless of how I vote, Nick Clegg should play some part in the next Government
17 April 2 May
Agree 64% 47%
Disagree 23% 42%
Download Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday Political Poll 2 May 2010 (0MB)