SUNDAY MIRROR / INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY POLL

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,054 GB adults online between 16th and 18th July 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. 

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Date Published
18 Jul 2014

Further Description

 

Voters say women promoted for "presentational reasons"

Voters are sceptical about the Government reshuffle, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror.

Most people, 56 per cent, said women were promoted for "presentational reasons" and only 24 per cent said women were promoted "on merit". Overall, only 20 per cent said the reshuffle improved my view of the Conservative Party, while 54 per cent said it had not.

Labour retains a three-point lead over the Conservatives in voting intention, hardly changed from last month's two-point lead:

Con 31% (-1)
Lab 34% (0)
LD 9% (+2)
UKIP 17% (-1)
Green 4% (0)
Other 5% (0)

Change since last month in brackets.

Ed Miliband cannot draw comfort from the survey: just 21 per cent of voters expect the Labour leader to be Prime Minister after the next election, compared to 31 per cent who said the same in May 2013. The proportion of voters who believe Mr Miliband will not be walking into Downing Street is at its highest, 44 per cent.

However Labour is still regarded as the party considered most likely to improve people’s finances, with 30 per cent supporting Mr Miliband’s party compared to 25 per cent saying the Tories would leave them better off. The Conservatives retain a lead on the economy as a whole, with 37 per cent believing the party would improve growth the most, compared with just 28 per cent for Labour.

Reshuffle

 

 

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

David Cameron’s reshuffle of his Government this week has improved my view of the Conservative Party

20%

54%

26%

David Cameron promotes women in his government purely on merit

24%

41%

35%

David Cameron promotes women in his government mainly for presentational reasons

56%

18%

26%

 

  • One in eight Labour voters (12%) and one in four Lib Dem voters (26%) say that this week’s reshuffle has improved their view of the Conservative Party. However, just 6% of UKIP voters agree.
  • More men (59%) than women (53%) agree that David Cameron promotes women in his Government mainly for presentational reasons.

Child sex abuse allegations

 

 

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

Politicians have probably covered up child sex abuse by other senior politicians in the past

77%

5%

18%

Allegations of child sex abuse in the 1960s and 1970s should still be investigated, despite it being over 30 years ago.

73%

11%

16%

I have confidence that the inquiry appointed by the Prime Minister will reveal and make public the truth about allegations of child sex abuse by politicians in the past.

30%

38%

32%

  • UKIP voters (91%) are more likely than Conservative (80%), Labour (80%) or Liberal Democrat voters (71%) to think that the politicians have probably covered up child sex abuse by other senior politicians in the past.
  • Older Britons are the most likely age group to think this (87% of 65+ Britons agree) – just 1% disagree that child sex abuse has been covered up in the past. 

"Wisdom of crowds"

Ed Miliband is likely to be prime minister after the next election

 

 

May 2013

Dec 2013

April 2014

July 2014

Agree

31%

21%

23%

21%

Disagree

37%

40%

39%

44%

Don’t know

32%

39%

39%

35%

 

  • Fewer than half (47%) of Labour supporters expect their leader to be prime minister.

Tony Blair

 

 

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

Tony Blair should be sacked as representative of the US, Russia, EU and UN to Israel-Palestine

47%

18%

34%

 

  • UKIP (66%) and Conservative voters (58%) are the most likely to say that Tony Blair should be sacked, with Labour voters divided (38% agree vs 29% who disagree).
  • Despite the party’s strong opposition to the Iraq war, Liberal Democrat voters are divided (38% agree, 26% disagree).

Expectations for the next Government / Prime Minister

The survey asked voters what they expected of different governments, giving half the sample a choice of a Conservative or a Labour government, and asking the other half to compare governments led by David Cameron or Ed Miliband - to test the effect of naming the leaders. 

David Cameron did better than the Conservative Party (or Ed Miliband worse than the Labour Party) except on "I would pay more tax" (naming Miliband cut the Tory lead) and "the quality of public services" (naming leaders made no difference). 

 

For each of the following, do you think they would be more likely under [a Conservative or Labour government] / [David Cameron or Ed Miliband as Prime Minister]?

 

 

Split 1

Split 2

Con

Lab

Don’t know

Lead

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